Matt LaFleur’s first season as head coach of the Green Bay Packers went about as well as anyone could have imagined. They were a good-not-great team who never felt quite as elite as their 13-3 record — a notion reinforced by the thumping they eventually took from the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.

And then the Packers went and had themselves an awkward offseason. They drafted a first-round quarterback, second-round running back, three interior offensive linemen, and zero wide receivers — this from a team with a hypersensitive Hall of Famer under center, a loaded backfield, an above-average offensive line, and only one receiver who tallied even 500 yards last season. Their only skill-position free agent, receiver Devin Funchess, opted to sit out the 2020 season altogether. Given those things, and given that it’s fair to expect some regression in areas like turnovers and injuries anyway, there are legitimate reasons to be wary of the Packers. They are not a finished product.

But even so, it feels as though there’s been an overcorrection in the national consensus. This team is making overrated lists when it might actually be underrated.

Don’t get me wrong: I’m as disappointed in the Packers offseason as anyone. But if there’s concern to be had, it’s in the long-term outlook. Even if the 2019 team wasn’t as good as its record, this is still a roster that swept the NFC North and beat Russell Wilson and the Seahawks in the playoffs. Wouldn’t any measure of progress this year make them… formidable?

It’s possible that I’ve just been trapped inside too long. But here are five reasons I’ve talked myself into this year’s Packers.

1) Matt LaFleur might be a damn good coach. LaFleur has flown largely under the radar since his surprising, plucked-from-obscurity hire. He gets lumped in as one of McVay’s guys, in reference to the herd of ascending young coaches associated with the Los Angeles Rams’ own boy wonder, Sean McVay.

But in reality, the coach he more closely resembles is one that he and McVay worked under together: Kyle Shanahan, the man at the helm of the team that dismantled last year’s Packers en route to the Super Bowl. In fact, LaFleur spent eight years coaching under Shanahan, in Houston, Washington, and Atlanta. Like Shanahan, LaFleur embraces an anachronistic offensive approach that values tight ends and running backs more than the data says is wise, but which, in the hands of Kyle Shanahan, his father Mike, and current Vikings assistant Gary Kubiak, seems to win a lot of games.

Schematic genius is great, but for the job of head coach, I place decidedly more value on smart and savvy leadership. Do you see the big picture? Can you connect with, inspire, and empower your players and assistants? Do you manage time well? Are you adaptable? Good coaches, like all good leaders, make others better. We don’t yet have a reliable way of measuring these things in the NFL, but they matter, and there’s evidence to suggest that the Packers young head coach has the goods.

If scheme’s your thing, there’s reason to believe LaFleur’s offense will be better in Year Two (certainly Shanahan’s has improved year-over-year). But aside from that, his leadership style is encouraging. It doesn’t seem far-fetched to say the way he manages this team may result in a wave of incremental improvements elsewhere.

2) This offense might surprise you. The tragedy of the Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have a supporting cast narrative is greatly overstated. Davante Adams is on the short list of the game’s best receivers, and there’s reason to believe that Allen Lazard can be at least league-average as the other primary boundary target — at minimum, he already looks like an upgrade over Geronimo Allison. The backfield tandem of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams combined for 2,271 yards and 25 touchdowns last year. If the Packers can get any measure of contribution from second-year tight end Jace Sternberger, a 2018 All-American who led the NCAA in receiving touchdowns before missing most of his rookie season to injury; or Equanimeous St. Brown, who spent all of 2019 on Injured Reserve; or the suddenly resurgent Marquez Valdes-Scantling; or hybrid weapon Tyler Ervin; or 247-pound rookie running back A.J. Dillon… Rodgers will have substantially more firepower at his disposal than at any point last year, when he was trying to make lemonade from the likes of Jimmy Graham and Jake Kumerow.

3) Rashan Gary might be good after all. With the Packers on the clock in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft, I shot a text to my dad, watching in another zip code: Anyone but Gary.

When they actually took the Michigan edge rusher with the 12th pick, I couldn’t believe it. His lack of college production scared me, and while I recognized the freakishness of his athletic measurables, his tape didn’t do much for me, either. A rookie season that saw him log fewer than 250 defensive snaps did not inspire confidence.

But despite all that, there are a few things working in Gary’s favor:

The aforementioned freakishness. On a scale of 1 to 10, Rashan Gary’s Relative Athletic Score — and I’m not making this up — is 9.95. Being a better athlete than the person lining up across from you isn’t the only thing that matters — if it were only about athleticism, the league would be lousy with track stars. But while you do need finely-developed skills in order to win your matchups consistently in the NFL, starting as a dramatically better athlete than your opponent is an advantage. Especially when…
He works his ass off. No, really. Forget all the usual boilerplate compliments and agent-generated hype. Since he arrived, all accounts out of Green Bay are that the kid is a tireless worker and obsessive about football. His coaches and teammates love him.
He’s in an excellent situation. Being drafted to a team with two well-established veterans atop the depth chart kept the spotlight off Gary in 2019, to the point that his falling behind Kyler Fackrell in defensive snaps wasn’t even an issue for most fans. Better still, those two vets he backs up, Preston Smith and Za'Darius Smith, are prototype mentors. It was no coincidence that the team placed Gary’s locker directly between them. On the field, sharing snaps with the Smiths (and with Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kenny Clark) should bring Gary a season-long feast of favorable one-on-one matchups, and Green Bay’s secondary is likely to hold up its end of the bargain more often than not (more on that in a minute).
He’s younger than you realize — almost a full year younger, in fact, than 2020 first overall pick Joe Burrow. Gary played most of his rookie season as a 21-year old, and when the obligatory he-reported-to-camp-in-great-shape stories began circulating in August, he was quick point out that he’s leaner, but not lighter. He says he’s just “growing into my man body.”

I’m not ready to fully commit. But is it crazy to think that a 22 year-old with elite physical ability, who works as hard as anyone on the team and is surrounded by a strong roster and good leadership, might turn out to be pretty effective after all?

4) Relative continuity during a turbulent offseason might be a secret weapon. The public health catastrophe we’re living through has upended the practical realities of teams’ daily routines. Minicamps were canceled. Offseason workouts became Zoom meetings. There wasn’t a single preseason game. Off the field, issues of politics and social justice have forced teams, players, coaches, unions, owners, and fans to engage in thorny national conversations transcending the stick to sports mantra.

In the midst of all this upheaval, the Packers aren’t replacing any schemes, coordinators, or star players. There’s been relatively little turnover of any kind, and the biggest coaching change seems poised to be a notable upgrade. Speaking of which…

5) Jerry Gray might be just what this secondary needs. The Packers already are returning one of the league’s best pass rushes up front, even if Gary busts. An improved secondary would go a long way toward transforming the entire defense from also-ran to headache for opposing coaches, and there’s a lot of talent to work with. 2018 first-rounder Jaire Alexander had two awful games last season — including allowing 201 receiving yards against Dallas — but outside those two games, he rated as one of the best corners in the league. Kevin King, meanwhile, has improved every year of his career to this point — and sure, he can be beat at times, but he rates more as average than liability, and he’s shown a knack for making big plays. Adrian Amos is quietly great every year, and there’s every reason to believe that 2019 first-rounder Darnell Savage, who acquitted himself fine as a rookie despite being injured, will get better. Chandon Sullivan, who was very good in limited reps a year ago, takes over the full-time slot role to much internal acclaim, and there are a few lottery tickets lurking further down the depth chart, including 2018 second-round pick Josh Jackson.

Enter Jerry Gray, a former first-round defensive back who made four Pro Bowls as a player and has been coaching the position for almost 25 years. Jaire Alexander told the Journal Times that Gray has “opened my eyes up to things that I’ve never even realized or noticed. Just my mental approach is night and day from last year.” If that approach translates to the field, look out.

So what does this all add up to? My best guess: 10-12 wins, narrowly edging the Detroit Lions (yes, the Lions) for the NFC North title, and another loss to the 49ers in the playoffs.

Hope springs eternal.

Maybe it's the six months of quarantine talking, but I'm starting to like this 2020 Green Bay Packers team